Arakan Army vs Bangladesh Army, What a Potential Conflict Could Look Like

The Arakan Army (AA), an armed group operating in Myanmar's Rakhine State, has long been fighting for autonomy in the region. On the other hand, the Bangladesh Army is a globally recognized, modern, and professional military force. If a conflict were to arise between these two forces, it would undoubtedly have significant implications for the region.

The Arakan Army’s primary goal is to establish autonomy for the Buddhist-majority Rakhine State. With an estimated 30,000 fighters, the AA employs guerrilla warfare tactics and is well-versed in the terrain of the region. However, its resources are limited, and it lacks the kind of logistical and technological support that a state-backed military would possess. While the Arakan Army has gained a foothold in parts of Rakhine State, its operations are often hindered by its isolation from international support and lack of advanced weaponry.

In contrast, the Bangladesh Army is one of the most professional and technologically advanced forces in the region. With over 200,000 active personnel, the military is equipped with modern weapons, tanks, artillery, and air defense systems. Its involvement in UN peacekeeping missions has also given its personnel extensive experience in handling complex operations. The Bangladesh Army’s organizational strength and access to advanced intelligence and logistics systems place it at a clear advantage in any direct military engagement.

A potential conflict between the two forces could arise if the activities of the Arakan Army along the Myanmar-Bangladesh border escalate to the point where Bangladesh’s security is threatened. This could include cross-border incursions or attacks, forcing Bangladesh to respond militarily.

In such a scenario, the Bangladesh Army’s superior technology, organization, and manpower would give it a significant edge. However, the Arakan Army’s intimate knowledge of the local terrain and expertise in guerrilla warfare could allow it to launch small-scale, targeted operations that might delay or complicate a swift Bangladeshi victory.

The humanitarian consequences of such a conflict could be severe. The Rakhine State is already a hotspot for ethnic and political tensions, and any escalation could exacerbate the refugee crisis. Bangladesh, which already hosts over a million Rohingya refugees from Myanmar, could face additional waves of displaced people. Economically, a conflict could disrupt trade and create instability along the border, impacting local communities and businesses.

Internationally, Bangladesh would likely receive diplomatic support for defending its sovereignty, while the Arakan Army, as a non-state actor, would remain largely isolated. However, the broader geopolitical implications of such a conflict could strain relationships in the region, especially with neighboring countries like India and China, which have strategic interests in Myanmar and Bangladesh.

The Bangladesh Army, with its professional training and access to modern weaponry, would likely aim to neutralize any threat posed by the Arakan Army through targeted operations. This could include strengthening border security, deploying surveillance technology, and launching precision strikes to dismantle AA strongholds.

While the Bangladesh Army’s dominance in such a conflict appears evident, the repercussions of war could extend far beyond the battlefield. It is in the interest of both sides—and the region as a whole—to avoid escalation and focus on diplomatic solutions. Stability in the region will depend on managing tensions and addressing underlying political and humanitarian issues.

Ultimately, while the Bangladesh Army’s superior capabilities would likely lead to a military victory, the true cost of such a conflict would be borne by the civilians caught in the crossfire and the fragile balance of peace in South Asia.